# Measuring Impact of a Cause:  Conditional Probability

Conditional probabilities are used to measure the impact of a cause on your behavior.  This lecture introduces you to the calculation of conditional probability.

# Objectives

1. Define probability
2. Test for conditional independence among various causes of your behavior
3. Make a causal model of what leads to your behavior
4. Measure the impact of a cause on your behavior using probability statements

1. Read introduction to probability concepts  More►

# Presentations

1. Lecture on measuring impact of a cause:

# What you know?

Advanced learners like you, often need different ways of understanding a topic. Reading is just one way of understanding. Another way is through writing about what you have read.  The enclosed assessment is designed to get you to think more about the concepts taught in this session.

1. What is the definition of probability?
2. What is definition of conditional probability?
3. How is the impact of a cause on the effect measured?
4. What is meant by shrinking universe and how is this concept useful in calculation of probabilities?

# Assignment Due this Week

1. Every week ask a question or comment on the lecture.  Comment►  Ask►

2. Calculate the probability of sleeping early, probability of exercising and conditional probability of exercise after sleeping late from the following Table:
 Morning exercise No morning exercise Total Sleep early 0.60 0.20 Sleep late 0.05 0.15 Total Table5:   Joint probability of exercise and sleeping early
3. A person has hypothesized that there are two causes of his exercise:  sleeping early and having an appointment with a buddy to exercise with,  He has collected two weeks of data presented in Table 6.  Calculate which cause is more likely to lead to exercise.  See it done►   SWF►

 Day Sleeping early Planning with buddy Exercise 1 Yes No No 2 Yes No No 3 Yes No No 4 No No No 5 No No No 6 No No No 7 No No No 8 Yes Yes Yes 9 Yes Yes Yes 10 Yes Yes Yes 11 Yes Yes Yes 12 Yes No Yes 13 No Yes Yes 14 No Yes Yes 15 No Yes Yes 12 No Yes Yes Table 6: A Causal Diary of Exercise

# More

•  Use of conditional probability in measuring impact of causes PubMed►
• Analytical prevention of relapse  PubMed►

This page is part of the course on Lifestyle Management   This page was last edited on 10/22/11 by Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D ©Copyright protected.