Conditional probabilities are used to measure the
impact of a cause on your behavior. This lecture introduces you to the
calculation of conditional probability.
- Define probability
- Test for conditional independence among various causes of your behavior
- Make a causal model of what leads to your behavior
- Measure the impact of a cause on your behavior using probability
statements
- Read introduction to probability concepts
More►
- Lecture on measuring impact of a cause:
Advanced learners like you, often need different ways of understanding a topic. Reading is just one way of understanding. Another way is through writing about what you have
read. The enclosed assessment is designed to get you to think more about the concepts taught in this session.
- What is the definition of probability?
- What is definition of conditional probability?
- How is the impact of a cause on the effect measured?
- What is meant by shrinking universe and how is this concept useful
in calculation of probabilities?
-
Every week ask a question
or comment on the lecture.
Comment► Ask►
- Calculate the probability of sleeping early, probability of
exercising and conditional probability of exercise after sleeping
late from the following Table:
|
|
|
Morning exercise
|
No morning exercise
|
Total |
|
Sleep early
|
0.60
|
0.20
|
|
|
Sleep late
|
0.05
|
0.15
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
Table5: Joint
probability of exercise and sleeping early
|
-
A person has hypothesized that there are two
causes of his exercise: sleeping early and having an
appointment with a buddy to exercise with, He has collected
two weeks of data presented in Table 6. Calculate which cause
is more likely to lead to exercise.
See it done►
SWF►
|
Day |
Sleeping
early |
Planning with buddy |
Exercise |
|
1 |
Yes |
No |
No |
|
2 |
Yes |
No |
No |
|
3 |
Yes |
No |
No |
|
4 |
No |
No |
No |
|
5 |
No |
No |
No |
|
6 |
No |
No |
No |
|
7 |
No |
No |
No |
|
8 |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
9 |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
10 |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
11 |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
12 |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
|
13 |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
|
14 |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
|
15 |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
|
12 |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Table 6: A Causal Diary of Exercise |
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- Use of conditional probability in measuring impact of causes
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This page is part of the course on
Lifestyle Management This page was last edited on
03/18/23 by Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D ©Copyright protected.
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