Review of Probability and Distributions 

This week we talk through how we can measure and describe uncertainty. When a person says to his partner “I am not sure where this relationship is going?” what does that mean precisely? Can we assign numbers to our uncertainty about the future, even uncertainty about love. We are all familiar with probability as a frequency of an event but not as a strength of our belief in the likelihood of the event. This week we look at probability and its calculus as a method of organizing opinions. The neat part of this week is the procedure for estimating the probability of rare events. In healthcare, adverse events such as wrong side surgery are rare. This week, we learn how to accurately measure rate of occurrence of rare events. When it comes to acting under uncertainty, one needs to estimate conditional probability, where the probability of outcome is calculated under different actions. Conditional probabilities are calculated by shrinking the universe of possibilities. Once conditional probabilities are calculated, expectation is used to recommend action under uncertain situations. Enough about what is coming up, let us proceed. Assigned ReadingThis section of the course is a review of material you have had in an introductory course on statistics
Presentations
AssignmentsInstruction for Submission of Assignments: Assignments should be submitted directly on Blackboard. In rare situations assignments can be sent directly by email to the instructor. Submission should follow these rules:
Question 1: In this problem we ask you to calculate a case mix index for a hospital from classification of its patients into Diagnostic Related Groupings (DRGs). In Health Administration programs case mix issues arises in multiple courses where severity of patients receiving care in different hospitals are discussed. The case mix index allows the comparison of two hospitals. It is generally calculated as a weighted length of stay across all DRGs see in the hospital. The concept of weighted average was discussed in this section. In a case mix index, the weights are the probability of observing patients in a particular DRG category. Each DRG category is assumed to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive. The number of patients who are admitted for different DRGs are indicated in the attached data file. From these numbers you calculate the probability of each DRG. By multiplying the probability of the DRG by length of stay you get the contribution of each DRG. The case mix index is the sum of the product of probability of each DRG and length of stay within each DRG. The higher the case mix index, the larger the expected length of stay at the hospital. Which hospital has a higher case mix index? Data► Answer► Anto's Teach One► Question 2: Download Hospital Compare Data using the link
below. Select flat file "Complications  Hospital.CSV" Read the data
into Excel. For all hospitals select "Rate of complications for hip/knee
replacement patients". You can do this by using Excel's filter. Calculate
the average rate across all hospitals. Calculate the standard deviation for the
rate across all hospitals. Excel has commands for calculation of standard
deviation and averages, please use these commands. Report the average rate and
the standard deviation of the rate to your instructor (do not include the data
in your submission). Data is also available through Medicare Compare site:
Hospital Compare►
Answer►
Steps in Downloading► Question 3: For this question use the file "Complications  Hospital.CSV" in Hospital Compare. Same file was also downloaded for question 2. Make a histogram of the rate of complications for hip/knee replacement patients at different hospitals using the data you downloaded in the previous step. Data► Abdi's Teach One► Question 4: For this question use the file "Complications  Hospital.CSV" in Hospital Compare. Same file was also downloaded for question 2. Plot the relationship between rate of complications for hip/knee replacements and pressure sores. Use scatter plot in Excel. Have the rate of complications as Xaxis and pressure scores as Y axis. Data► Excel Scatter Plots► More 
Copyright © 1996 Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Most recent revision 08/28/2019. This page is part of the course on Statistical Process Control, this is the lecture on Introduction to Probability. 